64 Thoughts on the NCAA Tournament.
1. March Madness is unpredictable.
The best teams have about a 20% chance of winning. Compare that to the NBA, where Boston has a 30% chance of winning the title, and we’re not even in the playoffs.
2. March Madness is democratic.
64 teams get in. Many of them are not good. Many of them are small schools that are not typically competitive in sports. The David v. Goliath component makes March Madness great.
3. The volume makes it a spectacle.
Having so many games makes March Madness opening weekend feel like an event. So much is happening all at once.
4. We could never design something like this now.
March Madness comes from a time when college sports didn’t really matter—when the big dogs were willing to share with the #1 UConn’s and Villanova’s of the world. And look how that turned out for them…
5. College Football’s Playoff won’t have the March magic
The chance of a large upset will be zero, because the truly underdog teams don’t get in. And even if they did, the talent disparity would be too large.
6. March Madness may benefit from one and done
Because having older, more experienced players is an advantage, the current one-and-done setup advantages the non-Star Factory schools.
7. How many players can you name?
While the tournament outcomes benefit from one-and-done, college basketball has lost a lot of its luster and star power. The average sports fan can probably name a fewer than a dozen college basketball players.
8. Single Elimination is an insane format
It helps the worse team, harms the better team, and creates less inventory for the networks to sell. Would college basketball ever try best of 3 for the Final Four and Championship rounds?
9. Single Elimination is an amazing format
Deciding that you want elevate excitement and engagement over other values—like rewarding the better team or earning more money—is something we don’t see in sports anymore.
10. What’s the point of the NCAA tournament?
We’re not really identifying the best team. Is it just to hold a tournament and crown a winner?
11. Getting to the Final Four is really hard.
Top teams have about a 50% chance of getting there. Which means we should expect only two #1 seeds to make that round.
12. Getting to the Elite Eight is really hard.
Top teams have about a 65% chance of getting there. Which means we should expect only three #1 seeds to make it to that round.
13. The Sweet Sixteen is where the tournament begins.
The top 16 seeds are all better than even money to make this round—with #1 seeds +80% likely to make it and 4 seeds closer to 55%.
14. Upsets help the Chalk.
When we see upsets, it helps the remaining chalk teams—because it’s far more likely that a non-competitive team will play well for a single game than for many.
15. Chalk won’t help you win your pool.
Selecting the Elite Eight and Final Four right is key to winning your pool—because that’s where you’ll have the biggest differences between your friends, family, and coworkers.
16. Bracket selection is game theory.
To win your pool, you need to think about who other people in your pool are going to pick—and then selectively zag. ESPN and CBS offer “majority” brackets that are good tips here.
17. Don’t pick the same upsets as everyone else.
If everyone has the game as an upset—you don’t get any credit for it.
18. Numbers/Squares pools are a lot of fun.
You get your money in on every game, don’t have to pick anything—and just get to enjoy the basketball.
19. Numbers/Squares pools are mostly random.
Unlike football, there’s a lot less rhyme or reason to which numbers will payout well or poorly. Just avoid doubles.
20. Is March Madness too big to fail?
College Basketball’s classic format has long resisted the commercial lull of expansion to 128 teams. How long can it hold out?
21. March Madness isn’t the biggest, by far
Tennis regularly hosts larger tournaments, with fields around 150 players for some of the majors. But most people—even tennis fans—don’t watch the opening rounds.
22. March Madness expansion
At what point would you stop watching the opening round? Is it 128 teams? 200+ teams? Or will the opening weekend of games always be interesting?
23. March Madness expansion II
At what point would you stop filling out a bracket? How many people no longer fill out a bracket if it has 128 teams versus 64? — probably a lot.
24. Bracket Busting
It’s somewhat surprising that we even fill out brackets for March Madness. Many other sports have tournaments—but we rarely enter bracket pools for them.
25. Big Money Brackets
More than $15B was wagered on March Madness last year. Only $2B is estimated to go through legal sports books this year.
26. Behind the Big Game
That $15B number is slightly behind the Super Bowl, for which Vegas takes nearly $25B in bets.
27. Betting is a wide-base consumer enterprise
The sharks simply don’t bet that much compared to the lay public. There are many more fish than sharks.
28. Fish or Shark?
Are you a fish or a shark heading into March Madness? We’re probably all fish.
29. Shark in a small pond
Before wide-spread access to TV footage, Vegas wouldn’t post odds for all the games; because it was known that some punters could make better lines for small-market teams.
30. Point Shaving
Boston College, Tulane, #9 Northwestern, and Arizona State have all been caught in point shaving scandals.
31. Name Image and Likeness
We might think that name image and likeness would decrease the likelihood of point shaving… But you might also think that charging a fee encourages people to pick up their kids from daycare on time. It doesn’t.
32. Who has the best mascot?
My vote is for #15 South Dakota state—with the jackrabbit.
33. Animal Mascots versus Human Mascots?
Three of the #1 seeds have animal mascots—Cougar, Husky, Ram—and one has a human—Boilermaker.
34. Tar Heels are people too fthough
It’s a civil-war era nickname for people from #1 North Carolina, relating to one of their then major industries: tar.
35. Old Guard, New Head
#4 Duke and #1 North Carolina are both making NCAA tournament runs this year without legendary coaches.
36. Does coaching matter more or less?
Presumably it matters more than it used to, but still less than talent.
37. Does recruiting matter more or less?
Presumably, a coach’s ability to recruit has been supplanted in some way by his schools ability to pay NIL fees?
38. Transfer Portal Madness
The Transfer Portal is open for next year. Which teams will score a talented player, looking for a pay day?
39. Reverse Correlation
Does winning the NCAA tournament make it less likely that you’ll succeed at the next level?
39. Reverse Correlation
Does winning the NCAA tournament make it less likely that you’ll succeed at the next level?
40. De’Andre Hunter
The last basketball player to win an NCAA title and go on to become a regular starter on an NBA team was De’Andre Hunter in 2018/19.
41. Exception that proves the rule?
Hunter is mostly back to being a backup, after starting 60+ games last year. He’s averaging 15 points and 4 rebounds, in just under 30 minutes per game.
42. Jalen Brunson
Brunson, of the New York Knicks, is the last NBA star to win an NCAA title. He was on the Wildcats when they won the title in 2016.
43. Exception that proves the rule?
Brunson scored only 4 points, and took only 4 shots in the NCAA final game against North Carolina.
44. 5x and 7x.
Brunson is averaging five-times as many shots (20.5) this year for the Knicks, and scoring seven-times more points (27.5) on those shots.
45. Championship Pedigree
The Denver Nuggets have a number of former NCAA champions as role players on their team.
46. Host Cities
14 cities will host parts of the NCAA tournament this year: Phoenix, Dayton, Brooklyn, Charlotte, Indy, Omaha, Pittsburgh, Salt Lake, Spokane, Memphis, Boston, Dallas, Detroit, and Los Angeles.
47. Host City?
What cities—if any—have enough basketball capacity to host the entire tournament? How many stadiums would you need?
48. Big Dogs
New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia are all good candidates, with a mix of professional sports arenas and university sports arenas.
49. Non-Costal Cities
Indianapolis and Phoenix are also good candidates, both with a number of stadiums—including college towns within a brief drive.
50. Host it all: Phoenix
Phoenix has a 17,000+ arena, a 15,000+ arena, and two 5,000+ arenas, with four others in that capacity range within a 2 hour drive. Phoenix could easily host the entire event.
51. Host it all: Indy
Things are a little tighter in Indianapolis. They have an 18,000+ seat arena, a 7,000+ seat arena and a 5,000+ seat arena. They could also plausibly use Lucas Oil stadium. Add in the campuses of Purdue, Bloomington, and Ball State, and the Hoosier state could comfortably host the whole tournament.
52. Other contenders…
Cincinnati and Dayton could likely combine to host the entire tournament. Charlotte could likely host the tournament—but it would be a bit of a stretch (+2h drive) to reach the Research Triangle schools.
53. The Big Unit
The NCAA rewards conferences per game played by a member school in the NCAA tournament, called a Unit.
54. Unit Cost
This year, a Unit is worth about $2 million. Another reason to root for your school—and their conference mates.
55. Big Money, Big Twelve
Eight Big 12 schools are in the dance, scoring $16 million for the conference.
56. Revenue sharing
What if you paid the kids 49% for each win? The tournament champion would have earned $3.5 million—or about 230k per student on the 15-man roster.
57. Uneven Distribution
Presumably, schools would not distribute the prize money evenly to athletes.
58. Is 3x3 coming?
Will we ever see colleges adopt 3x3 basketball, like the Olympics have?
59. Is 3x3 coming?
Will we ever see colleges adopt 3x3 basketball, like the Olympics have?
60. Is college the problem?
Is college basketball still a good training ground, or pathway step for NBA players? Or is it better for players to play abroad, or go to a developmental academy?
61. How would we fare?
How would a college all star team fare against international teams? Where would they place in the French, Spanish, or Croatian leagues?
62. 5-12 Upset?
The #12 JMU Dukes over the #5 Wisconsin Badgers.
63. Final Four
My final four: #1 Houston, #1 UConn, #3 Creighton, #3 Baylor
64. Who will win it all?
My favorite team is the #1 Houston Cougars.