Eleven Curious Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy, Aaron Rodgers, and Jordan Love are among our most interesting quarterback storylines of the year. Patrick Mahomes is not.
Quarterback play is one of the most important parts of modern football. And this season, there are eleven quarterbacks who we’ll be watching.
To come up with this list, we found the quarterbacks who have the widest range of outcomes by P(100)—a Wolohan Analytics original metric that estimates the likelihood of a quarterback playing at 100 Passer Rating level, for four or more games. This is approximately the level of performance needed for a quarterback to win the Super Bowl. For example, Patrick Mahomes had an average Passer Rating of 100.3 in his ‘23-’24 Super Bowl run.
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Can they come back?
The first two quarterbacks we’re watching this season are Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers. Both Burrow and Rodgers have had elite seasons. Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021, and Burrow took an uninspired Cincinnati franchise to the brink of a Super Bowl title in 21. But both found themselves on the bench last year, due to injuries.
Can either reprise their great form?
Burrow entered the league after a long college career and is already 27, with only 2 full NFL seasons in the books. His performance isn’t a question when he’s on the field, but if his durability wasn’t a concern before—it must be one now.
While Mahomes may have the recent hardware, Rodgers still has a claim to being the best quarterback in the league. But at 40 years old, it’s hard to know what the 4-time MVP has left. 2024 will be Rodgers 19th season and his first with the perennial loser New York Jets.
Can they keep it up?
For three quarterbacks, the question isn’t can they be great. It’s how long can they keep being great? Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, and Jordan Love all fall into this category.
Purdy is coming off of 20+ great games—but he has never had the shine that the others have. Meanwhile, Stroud and Love have much thinner resumes—each only playing well for about half a season. But memories are short in the National Football League, and the hype around Love and Stroud is high.
Can any of these three keep up their masterful performances?
Purdy is the best bet to repeat his performance, as we already have more than a season of evidence that he can produce. Stroud was inconsistent throughout his rookie year, while Love was streaky. Because of that, if asked to pick a player second most likely to have a great year—Stroud or Love—I’d choose Love.
Can they stand out?
There are two quarterbacks who ostensibly have good spots and solid resumes, but are still underwhelming: Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert.
Tagovailoa looks to be at the helm of one of the NFL’s hungriest offenses, down in Miami. And Herbert is paired with one of football’s all-time great coaches in Jim Harbuagh.
There’s little to say about these two, other than that, we’re expecting a lot from them this season. Can they deliver?
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Can they compete?
And lastly, our attention turns to the rookies. Best case scenario, they find themselves in the “Can they keep it up?” category next year—but being compared to C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy, or Jordan Love means a playoffs run in your first season at the helm.
There’s no NFL data yet on Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels, or Drake Maye. So it’s anyone’s guess what we’ll get from these four. Williams is the favorite to make a splash, but plays on the offensively inept Chicago Bears. And the NFC North is tough, featuring both the Packers and Lions.
Bo Nix—who is paired with head coach Sean Payton—is my favorite to make a splash.
So, what about everyone else?
We only mentioned eleven quarterbacks that we’re watching. Why so few? Simple. The performance of the other quarterbacks in the league has been consistent—so we do not need to worry about their performance.
Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff will put up strong, but not overwhelming regular season numbers.
Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins will do the same, but lose all the big games.
Lamar Jackson will have a great season, but is ultimately a weak and exploitable opponent.
Jalen Hurts, Geno Smith are fine starters—but if they’re on your team, you should be wishing you had someone else.
We don’t have reason to suspect these players performances will vary much this year. So we’re slotting them back into their performance over the last two years. For some that’s not bad.
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