Five NFL Storylines to Watch in 2023
Rodgers, Ravens, Russ and more...
The NFL season starts September 7th with the defending champion Chiefs hosting the feisty Detroit Lions.
Because football is the paradigmatic team sport, I usually prefer to hold off for the first few weeks before getting really invested. There are simply too many important things going on for anyone to really have a good idea of what happened and how each team changed over the off season.
That said, here are five storylines I’ll be following closely and the benchmarks I’ll be using to evaluate them.
1. Does Rodgers have enough left; are the Jets be good?
Aaron Rodgers move from Green Bay to New York is the highest profile story of the season—encapsulated by his feature role on Hard Knocks. But last season in Green Bay, he was far from his normal self.
After winning the MVP in both 2020 and 2021, Rodgers didn’t get a single vote for MVP in 2022. And why should he have? 2022 was Rodgers’ most futile year in the league since the 2013 campaign in which he was sidelined with a broken collarbone.
In 2014, Rodgers came back and won the MVP. Will we see a similar resurgence? Or is a 40-year old Rodgers finally done?
Personally, I’m of the opinion that rumors of Rodgers demise are exaggerated. Fan Duel has appealing over-under totals for Rodgers at 27.5 TDs and 3800.5 Yards. With the exception of last year, Rodgers has surpassed 3800 yards in every full season he has played.
Harbinger metric: The Jets play a daunting first four games: Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, and Chiefs. If the Jets have a positive point differential in those first four games, they’ll be a team to reckon.
2. Is the Russ/Broncos situation salvageable?
Similar to the Jets, the Denver Broncos acquired an aging star quarterback with the hope of turning their franchise around. Unfortunately for the Broncos, the “Let Russ Cook” days may be over. In fact, Russell Wilson may be cooked himself.
The Broncos have a middling win total (8.5) and Russ has meagre futures totals himself: 3625.5 Yards and 24.5 touchdowns. But Russ wasn’t able to hit those totals in either of his last two seasons. Why should he turn it around this year?
I’m selling the Broncos and Russ.
Harbinger metric: If Wilson can manage a completion percentage above 63% in each of his first four games, the Broncos could have something. Broncos’ new head coach Sean Payton has been at his best with the hyper accurate Drew Brees, who bested 70% completion percentage in each of his last 5 seasons.
3. Can the Jackson-Ravens get over the hump?
The Ravens have been knocking on the door with fantasy QB extraordinaire Lamar Jackson. But Jackson, who the Ravens just paid a record contract, hasn’t been able to help the Ravens win crucial playoff games. At times, he has looked hapless and one dimensional.
Fan Duel has the Ravens at +1800 to win the Super Bowl, +900 to win the AFC, and +210 to win their division: the AFC North. They’re expected to be good—but Baltimore is not on the shortlist to raise the Lombardi Trophy.
Harbinger metric: The Raven’s will live and die by Lamar’s versatility. If Lamar can keep the air threat alive and manage to average more than 220 yards/game in the air, the Ravens will be better than the current lines suggest.
4. Can the 49ers mitigate mediocre QB play?
Last season, critical quarterback injuries left the 49ers inept at the position in a conference championship game against the Eagles. But offensive mastermind Kyle Shanahan has shown he can make do with a game manager at the position.
Quarterback Brock Purdy looked good in his limited pre-season play, but Fan Duel isn’t posting season-long props for his yards or touchdown numbers.
I’m optimistic about the Niners, who have been knocking on the door since 2019, and are anchored by the ascendant Nick Bosa and ageless Trent Williams.
Harbinger metric: If 49ers QBs can average 220 yards per game over the first four games, the 49ers should have enough passing to threaten the other top teams across the league.
5. Will Hurts, Lawrence continue to have success?
24-year old Jalen Hurts and 23-year old Trevor Lawrence are the rising stars to watch this year. The defending NFC Champion Eagles look to contend again this year. And the Jaguars are riding a late-season knack for winning into the popular football conversation for the first time in recent memory.
Both Hurts and Lawrence jumped from completion percentages around 60% in 2021 to completion percentages above 66% in 2022.
With Hurts, I’d like to see continued success passing and a decreased emphasis on running the football. His 165 attempts in ‘22 was more than any Cam Newton season.
With Lawrence, he needs to continue to improve his pass efficacy. We should look for him to improve his adjusted net yards per attempt.
Harbinger metrics
Hurts: No games with more than 15 rushes in the first four weeks.
Lawrence: 7.5 Yards/Attempt over the first four weeks.