Longevity is Greatness
No complex statistical argument is needed for to proclaim Belichick, Carrol, and Saban great. And the same goes for Brady.
Bill Belichick, Pete Carrol, and Nick Saban—three of the best coaches in football history—are all out of their coaching jobs as of last week. Belichick and Carrol are looking for new jobs in the NFL. And the rumor about Saban is that he will be collecting tens of millions from the Walt Disney Company for commentator role.
This has a started a big conversation about the merits of each of these coaches. How good were they? And—especially with Belichick—how much were they buoyed by the greatness of their best players?
There are a lot of stats one can rally to the defense of these coaches, but one of the most powerful statistics is longevity.
Belichick coached the Patriots for 23 years
Carrol held the head coach job in college and pro football for 26 years
Saban was head coach of Alabama for 16 years, of 28 years in total as a head coach in both the NFL and college
That these gentlemen have held these highly competitive jobs, which are under intense pressure and scrutiny, is evidence of their greatness.
Most coaches in the league do not have half of that amount of time in role.
Longevity—in highly competitive fields—is a measure of ability. Because it is proof of survivorship.
This applies elsewhere too.
The four quarterbacks who started the most games are Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning. The best four ever? Maybe not. But close.
The four running backs with the most games with over 10 rushing attempts: Emmitt Smith, Frank Gore, Walter Payton, Marcus Allen.
The four basketball players who have played 30 or more minutes in the most games: LeBron James, Karl Malone, Kareem Abdul-Jabar, Jason Kidd.
The four baseball players with the most seasons playing at least 100 games: Pete Rose, Carl Yastrzemski, Hank Aaron, and Barry Bonds.
The people winning highly competitive jobs—head coach, starting player—for long periods of time are great players.
Longevity is greatness.
More sophisticated arguments may be needed to differentiate between the great. Distinguishing between Michael Jordan and LeBron James, for instance, requires a heavily opinionated and well-defended argument about how a basketball game—or season, or playoff—unfolds. Discriminating between Tom Brady and Bill Belichick—as many are doing now—is harder still. The comparison of a quarterback to a head coach is like the comparison of a car and its driver. Ostensibly, the two are both measured in wins, but the way they achieve those wins is markedly different.
One of the core principles here is a commitment to using simple metrics. Metrics that can easily be explained.
Longevity, as a barometer for success, has that in spades.
If it’s hard to do, and you did it a lot, then you’re great.