Matthew Stafford is a trailer, not the MVP

There’s a theory of quarterbacking in the NFL that some players are trucks and some are trailers. A trailer is pulled; a truck does the pulling. And the theory goes that some quarterbacks can carry a team, and others need to be carried by their team.

This theory is often a mask for preferring “talented” players over good, winning players – but the theory applied seriously is a good one. Football is a complex game. And it is fully possible for a quarterback to be carried by their team. Also, because a quarterback touches the ball every play, they can impact the game positively.

Peyton Manning is the quintessential truck. His ability to audible into new plays was unmatched when he was playing. And he had an unprecedented amount of control over his offenses.

This year, Matthew Stafford is the quintessential trailer.

Stafford is having a great season if you go by box score stats – but based on the metrics that we look at to project QB performance, he’s been just above average. And that is with an incredible amount of support. His offensive weapons are the best in the league, outside of Dallas. With Puka Nacua as his number one target and Davonte Adams – who was the league’s best receiver just three years ago – as his number two, Stafford has the best help a QB can ask for.

Despite that, he trails Drake Maye in all three P(100), yards per attempt and success rate.

Maye and the Patriots meanwhile have the 14th best weapons, with an aging Stefon Diggs as the number one and a tight end–Hunter Henry–as their number two option.

Conference mates Sam Darnorld and Brock Purdy compare favorably to Stafford as well.

Darnold has the edge in yards per attempt and P(100), with a slightly worse receiving corps. While Purdy’s receivers don’t come close – and Purdy beats Darnold on every margin. It wouldn’t be right to consider Purdy for MVP given that he missed half the season, but on the numbers we care about, there’s a lot more reason to think he’ll excel in the playoffs than Stafford.

And while we’re evaluating quarterback play in the context of their surroundings, Jordan Love and Josh Allen deserve some love. The Green Bay and Buffalo receiving groups come in at the bottom of the league, with Washington and the Jets, but those QBs have been excelling all year under center.

All that said, it doesn’t feel right to give the MVP to a trailer. Give it to a truck.