NFL Thanksgiving Preview
Getting ready for a week of should-be blowouts.
The plan for this post was to do an NFL Thanksgiving Review: to take stock of the league at the halfway point, and look at where we’re going from here.
We were going to follow the Belichick aphorism that the season doesn’t really begin until Thanksgiving.
But this year, at least, it looks like the season might have ended before Thanksgiving. And now we’re just waiting for the playoffs to roll around.
The top teams at the Thanksgiving mid-season point—10 games in—and our “way too early” review a month ago—6 games in—are the same. There’s some minor changes in the middle of the pack, but nothing consequential.
If we were to think about teams as the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly:
We’d have seven good teams: 49ers, Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, ‘Boys, Bills, and Lions.
We’d have about 12 bad teams—from the Vikings, Chargers, and Texas on the upside, down to the Steelers and Colts at the bottom.
We’d have about 13 ugly teams, with New York football—Giants and Jets—scraping the bottom of the barrel.
In lieu of revisiting what is mostly unchanged, we going to change this review, into a preview.
I will present—in full—the metrics we would have used to rank teams, and then take a look at the Thanksgiving-week slate of NFL games and associated odds.
The Good
The Bad
The Ugly
Lions (-7.5) v. Packers
Thanksgiving Day, 12:30p
Lions - Packers is unlikely to be competitive, event though the Lions are the worst of the good teams, and the Packers are a middle of the pack team that flirts with good sometimes. Both Elo and EPA have the Lions at +5 over an average team, and the Packers as an average team. That type of exact agreement is rare. If we think the Lions should be favored by 5, and we’re giving them 2.5 points for home field advantage, the 7.5 line seems correct.
If you like 3 points for home field advantage, then the Lions are the side to take—but the advantage from playing at home has lessened in recent years.
For this game, I’d look at alternate lines for the most value. The Lions -9.5 is +102 and the Lions -13.5 is +164. You could even combine that with a Packers alternate line (e.g., Packers +2.5 at +240) to have action on both sides of the game.
The FanDuel implied score is 27-20 Lions. Most of the value is going to be on Lions blowout props.
Cowboys (-10.5) v. Commanders
Thanksgiving Day, 4:30pm
This division matchup faces the Cowboys against the Commanders, and the metrics favor the Cowboys heavily. By Elo, the Cowboys should be 12-point favorites. By EPA the Cowboys should be 18-point favorites. Add on the Cowboys superior quarterback play and home field advantage, and there looks to be clear upside on the Cowboys here.
The Cowboys have been absolutely crushing bad teams this season.
They won 33-10 versus the Panthers, 49-17 versus the Giants, and 43-20 versus the Rams in their last 3 games against bottom of the league teams.
Expect more of the same here versus a bad Washington team. I like a combination of Cowboys at -6.5 (-205) and -19.5 (+240).
The FanDuel implied score is 34-24. I wouldn’t expect Washington to score that many points and neither does FanDuel. They have the Commanders’ under at 18.5.
49ers (-7) v. Seahawks
Thanksgiving Day, 8pm
The final Thanksgiving Day game, and the only one that matches up two teams you would want to watch. Both the Seahawks and the 49ers are better than average teams, but San Francisco is a lot better and the Seahawks are just a little better.
The 49ers are 6 point favorites by Elo and 14 point favorites by EPA. With home field advantage, I’m surprised the spread isn’t higher, but it is a division game.
My favorite bet on this game is the 49ers over 25.5 points (-108). The Seahawks gave up more than this many points to the Rams, Lions, Panthers, Ravens, and Commanders, and the Christian McCaffery show is the best offense in the league.
The implied score here is 24-17.
Dolphins (-9.5) v. Jets
Black Friday, 3pm
Lastly, we have a matchup that threatens to be interesting the Jets have wins over the Eagles and Bills this year—so they are capable of beating good teams. But in their most recent matchup with Buffalo, the Bills ran over them. Everyone has—with the Jets giving up more than 130 rushing yards in 70% of their games this season.
I’d expect a big day for the Miami offense, against an otherwise vaunted Jets defense.
The Elo estimate has the Dolphins winning by 11 and the EPA has the Dolphins winning by more than 20.
The FanDuel implied score is 25-15 Dolphins.
All the Favorites?
Because the advanced metrics found in favor of the favorites every time—it feels like Vegas is under-valuing the top of the league—it’s worth mentioning that a 4-team, 5.5. point teaser with all the favorites (Detroit, Dallas, San Francisco, and Miami) is +250. If you want to have a financial interest in the games, without over thinking it, that seems like as good an option as any.
