NFL Win Totals that don't make sense
And why this season will be all about Aaron Rodgers
NFL Win Totals are funny. They are a long-term bet, designed to trap the football-deprived gambler-cum-football fan into one of a number of house-advantaged bets.
Because oddsmakers are constructing independent lines, the lines tell us more about what Vegas thinks of the public than what Vegas thinks about the upcoming football season—though it does tell us a little of both.
That said, none of that keeps forecasting the winningness of NFL teams from being a popular sports talk topic as we head into the NFL season. It’s fun to speculate about how teams will do because… well… it’s all we can do at this point.
So which teams are going to do well?
To estimate how teams are going to do, I simulated 1 million NFL seasons and took the median result for each team, giving an estimate of the 50% mark for each team. That is, about half the time we expect teams to do better than the number produced and half the time we should expect them to do worse.
The favorites were the usual suspects. In order: the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Ravens, and Bengals are expected to be the top dogs this year. But the simulation isn’t as rosy as the sportsbook for these teams.
The Chiefs, Eagles, Ravens, and Bengals are all favored by the sports books by a full win or more. And the Bengals in particular are favored by nearly 2.5 wins. This is part of a broader optimism about the AFC North in general. Fan Duel has every team in the division at or above 8 wins, similar to 2021 when the Bengals won the division at 10-7.
I’m also a bit skeptical of the Chiefs this year. Their stock is high after a Super Bowl victory and the apparent invincibility of Patrick Mahomes. But the aura of invincibility may have a bit of mirage to it. Mahomes has spent a good number of snaps in less than perfect health, with a foot bruise and a high-ankle sprain hindering his normal athleticism last year.
The Chiefs made changes to their offensive line to attempt to protect their star, but a highly competitive schedule should make us more skeptical about their chances. Then again, last time the Chiefs won the Super Bowl in 2019, they charged to 14 wins and were only stopped in the playoffs by the last hurrah of Tom Brady in the subsequent Super Bowl.
Which other teams are going to surprise us?
The surprises, of course, are not limited to the top of the league. The Cardinals, 2022s worst team, should provide some value as well. They should come back to earth as a slightly-below average team.
After the Bengals, the Payton/Wilson Broncos are the most overvalued by the oddsmakers. In a division with the Chiefs and Chargers, and the under-valued Raiders, it is hard to see how the Broncos cobble together 9 wins without resolving their pathetic offense.
On the flip side, the Raiders have capable game manager Jimmy Garoppolo as their quarterback and are underestimated by Fan Duel by about 1.5 wins. The Raiders played their opponents tough last year, with only 2 losses by more than a touchdown. They also had a modest -23 point differential. Their expected point differential in 2023-24 is -3, which puts them around .500 or 8 wins.
Lastly, the Dolphins and the Jets both represent the AFC East among teams with inflated Vegas value. For the Jets, this makes some sense. Vegas is factoring in a 90+ point boost due to Aaron Rodgers. If you believe that’s the value of Rodgers, that puts the Jets at about 10 wins.
There’s no explaining the continued optimism about the Dolphins, though. They are in a tough division: the star-led Jets and Bills, and the stalwart Patriots will provide a grueling in-division schedule. Out of conference they travel to the Chiefs, Ravens, and Eagles. Designed to be a ground-and-pound team, with a run-first offense and a stout defense, it will be interesting to see if the Fins can either stifle or match the high-powered offenses they are sure to face.
Bets we like.
Raiders over 8.5 (+360)
Raiders over 7.5 (+210)
Dolphins under 9.5 (-110)
Bengals under 10.5 (+125)
Broncos under 8.5 (-114)