P(100) QB Tiers
How to think about quarterback play and which surprising player joins MVPs Mahomes and Rodgers at the top of the league?
August and September are QB Tier season. We really have no football of note to talk about. So instead of admitting that, the media makes up this idea of QB Tiers.
Mike Sando is the guy who has been doing this the longest. He polls NFL personnel and compiles their votes, MVP style. It’s not perfect, but it’s pretty good.
Other people just make stuff up: [1] [2] [3] [4]
For my money, QB tiers are overrated. Football is not basketball. In basketball, you need one of a handful of guys to have an earnest shot at winning the title. In football, you can win the Super Bowl in any number of ways.
Indeed, because the playoffs are so short any quarterback that can be great for three or four games in a row can win you a Super Bowl. From 2011 to 2022, the following non-exceptionally quarterbacks all won Super Bowls: Joe Flacco, Nick Foles, Eli Manning, and Matthew Stafford.
What those quarterbacks did, though, was put together exceptional playoff runs. Indeed, the average playoff quarterback rating of the Super Bowl winning QB was 102. Which is just under Aaron Rodgers career average of 103.
Critically, the player only needs to sustain that level of play for at most four games.
The only quarterbacks in the last decade to win Super Bowls with playoff QB ratings less than 100 are Tom Brady (3x) and Peyton Manning.
Introducing: P(100) QB Tiers
Which brings us to the Wolohan Analytics P(100) QB Tiers. Historically, a quarterback has needed to average a QB rating of 100 for four games to win the Super Bowl. So we create tiers based on their likelihood of achieving this feat.
For each quarterback in the league, we calculate the percentage chance that they will have a QB rating over 100 for a four game stretch, using the last three years of gameplay, weighted to prefer more recent performances.
The tiers are divided up as follows:
Tier 1 - More than 60% chance of a QB rating of 100 in four games
Tier 2 - 45% to 60% chance of a QB rating of 100 in four games
Tier 3 - 25%-45% chance of a QB rating of 100 in four games
Tier 4 - Less than 25% chance of a QB rating of 100 in four games
So without further ado…
Tier 1: Purdy much who you expect
The surprises start off fast with our QB tiers. Rookie QB from Iowa State, Brock Purdy, joins Hall of Famers Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes in the exclusive Tier #1. But perhaps that shouldn’t be as much of a surprise as it is.
Purdy excelled in 6 undefeated starts last season, averaging 8 yards per attempt and a 107 passer rating under the tutelage of signal caller Kyle Shanahan. He was on the way to the Super Bowl, until an elbow injury essentially ended his season.
Even still, Mahomes and Rodgers are a few percentage points more likely than Purdy to put together a sufficiently good playoff campaign. Both eclipse the 100 rating threshold in more than 2-in-3 simulated four-game stretches. Accounting for four of the last five NFL MVP awards, Mahomes and Rodgers are no doubt the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Tier 2: Even Money
Tier 2 quarterbacks are about 50/50 to put together a quality postseason. They are as likely to let you down as they are to show up. But unless you can get a Tier 1 guy—and you can’t—if your team has one of these quarterbacks, you should be pretty happy.
Tier 2 is interesting because it’s a lot of players who fans wouldn’t be that excited about starting for their team. Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston, and Dak Presccott are the classic “I guess if we don’t have anyone else, he’ll give us a shot" guys. But that’s what quarterbacking in the playoffs is about. Giving your team a shot for four games.
Tier 2 also has some serious talents who have questions about their resume. Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, Deshaun Watson, and Josh Allen. have all had excellent stretches throughout their careers. They’ve got the talent to win Super Bowls. Will this be their year?
Tier 3: Are you feeling lucky?
As we descend into Tier 3, these quarterbacks are going to need some luck to win the title—but it wouldn’t be considered strange if any of them won the Super Bowl. There’s a lot of traditionally recognized talent in this group. Herbert, Tagovailoa, and Hurts are three quarterbacks considered hot, young prospects. Murray is still an exceptional dual threat player. Brady—theoretically retired—Wilson, and Garoppolo are all Super Bowl winners.
There’s an easy story around any of these players winning the title. And with some of the younger players—Hurts and Tagovailoa especially—there’s a strong argument to be made that their growth should put them in Tier 2. That’s certainly what their teams and fans are hoping, anyways.
That said, at this time—you should expect the Tier 3 players to let you down.
Tier 4: Living on a prayer
If you haven’t seen your team’s QB yet, welcome to the basement: Tier 4. These players have less than a 1-in-4 chance of putting together a run of games good enough to win the Super Bowl. You do not want one of these players taking snaps for your team this year.
And there’s no lack of names in the bottom tier. 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson, who became the highest paid player in the league this offseason, headlines the group, which is also home to Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields.
Ultimately, these players just aren’t good enough consistently to be counted on to put together a successful playoff run. Jackson is emblematic of this. His highs are soaring. But his lows crash to the earth in Icarian fashion. Jackson passed for less than 6 yards per attempt and threw three interceptions in regular season games versus conference rivals Buffalo and Cincinnati.
Likewise, Justin Fields can dual with Tua—rushing for nearly 200 yards and passing for three touchdowns. But he also passed for less than 155 yards in 9 starts last year.
To win the Super Bowl, a quarterback needs to win four games in a row. And the players in Tier 4 have either proven they can’t be counted on, or haven’t yet proven they can be.
Teams with quarterbacks in this tier are on the outside looking in.
How do I bet this?
These tiers designed with the Super Bowl in mind—so if you want to put this knowledge to work for you, you’ll need to look at the NFL Futures.
The Eagles (+800) and Ravens (+1800) have the best odds for quarterbacks in Tiers 3 (Hurts) and 4 (Jackson). Look to fade the Eagles and Ravens by betting on the other favorites in those conferences to take the Super Bowl.
The 49ers (+1000) are probably under-valued relative to the Eagles. And they have the Tier 1 QB. If you trust Purdy to come back healthy and don’t expect Hurts to markedly improve, the 49ers could be a good bet. The 49ers have been a perennial feature in the NFC Championship the last four years.