The Eras Tour (NBA Version)
The LeBron James era is over. Who will reign next?
This is the first season we can confidently say that the LeBron James era of basketball is over. The King is dead. Long live The King.
We recently published our Manalytics Score metric. Which aimed to provide a simple, comprehensive, and flexible measure of what teams have enough star-power to win a title. And while the metric was designed around teams, we can also use it as a measure for players: Manalytics Score can help us understand which players have enough star power to carry their team to a title.
When we do this for all the players throughout NBA history, the Manalytics Score nicely sorts the top players from each area. Using a score of 15 as a threshold, we can calculate the duration of a players dominance over the league. Below are the players with a streak of seasons with a Manalytics Score of at least 15, that extends for at least 9 years, with a peak score of at least 30. Nikola Jokic, is included in this grouping as well because he will likely achieve a peak-score greater than 30 this coming season.
Even among the greats of the eras, LeBron James stands out. His streak length and max score are both second to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.
But no player has reached a Manalytics Score of 15 or more, after having been below 15 for at least 2 seasons. James’ year season with a score of 15 was in 2021. His streak is over.
After receiving just a single MVP vote in 2021-22, and no votes in 2022-23. James’ run was excellent, but it is over. His Manalytics Score is 2 going into the 2023-24 NBA season.
The LeBron Stoppers
Unlike many of the other players on the eras list, James is without an obvious foil. At least none who had the sustained excellence that perfectly mirrored his, like Russel and Chamberlain, Magic and Bird, or Jordan and Malone. Instead, James’s era is intersected in part, by the latter half of the Kobe Bryant era, and a number of players who couldn’t quite fill an entire era.
We might have imagined that Steph Curry would lay claim to an era—winning 4 titles between 2015 and 2022—but Curry’s streak of seasons with a Manalytics Score above 15 was only from 2016-2020. In 2022, Curry’s score was 14. And he’ll have a 13 heading into the 2023-24.
So one concept might be to frame it is James bridging the gap between the Kobe and Curry eras—if we extend Curry the benefit of the doubt and grant him an era.
James also overlapped with several high-Manalytics score players, including Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Garnett, and Kawhi Leonard. All of whom kept James from hoisting NBA trophies in their own way.
The Return of the Bigs
Right as we thought that small players shooting 3s, a la Steph Curry, was going to dominate the league, that trend looks to be over. Now, dominant bigs run the show. A center has won the MVP award in each of the last 5 seasons—Giannis twice, Jokic twice, and Embiid last season—and been at the heart of three of the last four NBA championship teams (Davis and the Lakers in ‘20, Giannis and the Bucks in ‘21, and Jokic and the Nuggets in ‘23.)
Giannis and Jokic are my bet for the stars who will claim the 20’s decade of basketball as their own. Both are 28—the beginning of their primes—with MVP trophy’s already under their belts. As good as they are now, they will both be better in 3 years.
Jokic is the reigning NBA champion and will look to repeat the feat with teammate Jamal Murray. Together, they may be the best offensive two-man combo in history. Murray, is also 26 and improving year over year.
Meanwhile, Giannis will be campaigning in 2023-24 with Damien Lillard. Lillard will instantly be the best #2 in the league since the Kevin Durant and Steph Curry faced off against Chris Paul and James Harden, where any of the four could have rightly be considered top 5 in the league.
And waiting in the wings—watching the success of Giannis and Jokic—is French star Victor Wembanyama. In a way, mirroring the rise of LeBron James: Wembanyama is entering the league young, and no matter how fast he starts, will need to watch as the current guard ages out to truly have success. Just as James needed to wait for Kobe and Duncan, Nowitzki and Garnett, Wembanyama will need to wait for Giannis and Jokic.
But 7 years from now, as the 19-year old Wembanyama enters the early stages of his prime, Giannis and Jokic will—in all likelihood—be closing their runs atop the league. Perfect timing for a big man, to unseat his rivals.