The NBA Title Case for each Team with a Chance
Why the Bucks, Celtics, Nuggets, Warriors, 76ers and Mavricks will win the NBA title - and the Lakers and Suns will not.
The NBA season is almost upon us — but that isn’t good news for most fanbases. Because of the way the postseason is structured, the gap between the haves and have-nots in the NBA is stark. The top teams are disproportionate favorites.
In fact, last year’s Miami Heat run is the exception that proves the rule. The Heat, a team that nobody thought had a chance in a 7-game series against a top team ended up… not having a chance in a 7-game series against the top team: losing in a gentleman’s sweep to the now defending champion Denver Nuggets.
In fact, our Manalytics Score metric gives only 6 teams a good chance to win the NBA final this year: the Milwaukee Bucks, the Boston Celtics, the Denver Nuggets, the Golden State Warriors, the Phillaphelphia 76ers, and the Dallas Mavericks.
Before the season starts, we’ll go through each team and explain why they have a shot at the title.
1. Milwaukee Bucks (+360)
The Bucks had the biggest offseason of any team on this list, doing so puts them at the top of Vegas’ rankings. And before that, they topped our Manalytics Score measure with a 33.
The fate of the Bucks begins and ends with their star: Giannis Antetokounmpo. As he goes, the Bucks will follow. If he falters with injury, like he did last year, the Bucks have no shot. But in the three years before that, he averaged a playoff BPM over 10. If he can return to form, the addition of Damian Lillard will be more than enough to crown the Bucks champs.
2. Boston Celtics (+500)
Many decry that Boston got worse this offseason, sending off over-hyped journeyman Marcus Smart, and bringing in borderline All-Pro Kristaps Porziņģis. We don’t understand that analysis at all—and neither does Vegas. Vegas has the Celtics with the second-best odds to win the NBA title this year.
25-year old Jayson Tatum is the Boston Celtic’s star and if Boston is to win, he will need to be the centerpiece. That’s part of the reason that moving Marcus Smart was a good thing. Smart had a way of sidelining the Celtic’s stars in key spots. Which may have been excusable when those stars—Tatum and Jaylen Brown—were experiencing the growing pains of their early 20s. But now those stars are entering their prime.
If Porziņģis is healthy, the three-headed attack of the Boston Celtics will be hard to beat. Boston is the only team with a balanced big three—where the drop-off between the #2 player and the #3 player sis less than 3 BPM. This should equate to versatility and variety in the playoffs. Something the often stagnant Celtics have lacked.
3. Denver Nuggets (+650)
How Denver wins the title needs no explanation: we just saw it happen in June. Jokic and Murray run a near unstoppable two-man game. Jokic is the best distributor in the league.
Both players are young and improving. In fact, there’s reason to believe that Murray at least has room to grow. His performance in the playoffs last year was under his career best playoff performance, from a BPM perspective—and he’s inching into his prime at 26. Combined with a weak West and the shadow of the Celtics and Bucks, the Nuggets have a “nobody believed we could repeat” motivation as well.
4. Golden State Warriors (+1700)
Of the teams on the list, the Warriors are one of the hardest teams to convince yourself can win the title. Klay Thompson has aged out of stardom and CP3 is not an obvious excellent fit for what the Warriors do—but he certainly has the tools. If Curry and Paul can find a synergy that works, and the Warriors win another title, it would cement years 2015 to 2024 as the Steph Curry era.
To make it happen, the Warriors would likely need a step-up season from Jonathan Kuminga, and a career year from Anthony Wiggins. But if any two players in the league can facilitate a breakout, it’s Curry and CP3.
5. Philadelphia 76ers (+2400)
Vegas has downgraded Philly, on the assumption that James Harden will not be with the team in the coming year and that they will not get equal value in return. And the truth is, even at his late age, Harden is hard to replace. Harden was a top 20 player last year and a top 10 player in 2021. He may have lost a step—but his best nights were better than most.
Embiid was a stretch pick for MVP and will need help to win in the coming year. If Philly wins, the story will be all about this new-found star pairing. The question for Philly fans is: Embiid and who?
Heading into the next season, Philly’s roster is one of the most imbalanced—behind only Dallas, which is notorious as a one-man show. Their Eastern rivals—Boston and Milwaukee —on the other hand, both give nearly 50% of their playing time to positive efficiency players (55% and 48%, respectively), and have the fewest major-minute negative efficiency players (33% and 31%, respectively.)
6. Dallas Mavericks (+2500)
Lastly, the Dallas Mavericks. The acquisition of Kyrie Irving last year gives the Mavericks hope—but Irving may never have been a good enough piece to win an NBA title. Even our most optimistic projections of him—5.5 BPM—have him an average #2 player.
Could a Luka-Kyrie tandem hoist the trophy? Maybe. If Dallas wins, it will be a consortium of efforts from role players, and one or two “nobody can guard him” moments from Luka. In fact, Dallas’ best hope may be a better version of what Miami showed us this year. With Luka instead of Butler and Kyrie instead of Bam, Dallas has the offensive firepower. Can the supporting staff show up and help them out?