The Numbers or Your Lyin' Eyes?

What numbers should you trust in a somewhat status quo, somewhat surprising 2024 NFL season? And how should you be fading the Chiefs to the bank?

We’re back, halfway through the NFL season with a roundup of three stories from the top of the league—and a great opportunity to fade one of the league’s darling teams: the Kansas City Chiefs.

There’s some zagging (the aforementioned Chiefs). But there’s also some truth in advertising: the Washington Commanders really are playing as well as it looks like they are.

Let’s dive in and take a look at the top of the table.

Top NFL Teams

Halfway through the NFL season we have a lot of data under foot. And we are mostly going to be talking about the teams we thought we would be talking about. If at the start of the season you had said the Bills, Lions, Ravens, Chiefs, Packers, and 49ers were among the best eight teams, someone might rightfully have asked if you were talking about 2024 or 2023. After all, all six of those teams played in the Divisional round games. And four made it to the conference championships: the Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers, and Lions.

That said, how consistent the top teams are disguises how much change there really has been at the top.

The 49ers are no longer dominant. The Chiefs are winning, but weakened. Meanwhile the Lions and Ravens look to be in stronger positions than ever. And the Commanders—wait, what?—are charging hard towards the top of the league.

Jayden Daniels

Washington was not the team we expected to be talking about and Jayden Daniels was not the breakout star that I expected. But then again, there are not good, data-driven ways of assessing the college-to-pros likelihood of QB success.

It is also the case that a good quarterback can change a lot—and Washington was already knocking on the door of relevance last season.

Daniels has not had unbelievably impressive games; however, he passed for 270 yards and racked up a 110 passer rating against regional rival Baltimore. His lanky build and running ability no doubt also draw comparisons to the Ravens’ two-time MVP Lamar Jackson.

What Daniels has accomplished is keeping the ball safe (only two interceptions), and having courage to throw the ball downfield: 8.4 yards per attempt. He scores only 11% on our P(100) rating. But we punish young players for the lack of evidence. Assuming he can stay healthy—which may be a strong assumption given his playing style and an existing rib injury—we’ll see his P(100) creep into alignment with his PSY rating. And we’ll see his PSY creep up as a result of his increasing P(100).

Right now, Daniels’ PSY of 50 is a solid, middle of the league rating. Not outstanding by any means. But 50 places him with veterans like Sam Darnold and Kyler Murray. And well above fellow rookies: Caleb Williams (18), Drake Maye (15), and Bo Nix (3).

Another Jackson MVP Season

True! — nervous — very, very dreadfully nervous I had been and am; but why will you say that I am mad?

— The Tell-Tale Heart, Edgar Allen Poe

Lamar Jackson has played in three full NFL seasons. He has won the MVP in two of them. That is a fact that Jackson doubters have to accept.

What is easier for them to accept is that in the playoffs Jackson is 2-4 with a combined passer rating of 75.

Jackson might be the league’s best “just a game” quarterback. When a game is just a game, Jackson delivers unmatched athleticism and a powerful arm. When he can be half of a two-headed rushing attack, he’s especially dangerous.

When the games and competition tightens, and Jackson is forced into a one-dimensional passing role—as inevitably happens with all quarterbacks—Jackson has historically been limited.

This year, Jackson is in top form. So if he is going to buck the trend, this should be the year. Jackson is top 3 in P(100), Yards/Att, and Success Rate - all the criteria that make up our PSY ratings. And he has recorded passer ratings above 100 in his last six games.

With who the Ravens play the rest of the year, it will likely be the playoffs that reveal the real Jackson.

🚨Fade Alert: Patrick Mahomes?!🚨

Of course, there’s another oddity about the top teams this year. The Chiefs are winning (unsurprising) and wildly over-valued (very surprising). Mahomes and the Chiefs do not have an inspired passing attack this year. The Chiefs frog-voiced phenom is having what could be the worst season of his career.

P(100) says Mahomes has a 46% chance of being good enough to lead the Chiefs to a Super Bowl; 5+ percentage points worse Jackson, Goff, and Purdy. An our PSY metric gives him a B-/C+ grade, while the three aforementioned rivals all receive As.

Yet Vegas gives the undefeated Chiefs the best odds to win the Super Bowl at +450.

Because Vegas’ odds do not need to be strictly probabilistic, that doesn’t necessarily mean there is arbitrage in the market—but when a middle of the road team like the Chiefs is valued so highly, there usually is.

Wait, but aren’t the Chiefs the sole undefeated team in the league?

Yes. And if the year was 1970, we would think that wins and losses were a meaningful way to assess a team’s strength. But we know better in 2024.

The Chiefs don’t even have the best point differential in their division (the Broncos do). By weighted expected points added, the Chiefs should be about touchdown underdogs when they travel to Buffalo in a few weeks. And plainly, they just don’t pass the eye test.

The unblemished record and name recognition boost their standing—but it shouldn’t fool us.

If you want to fade the Chiefs—and we do—here’s how to do it. Take the AFC half of the field and bet the Ravens, Bills, and Texans. Make both the Ravens and Bills 40% of your bet, and splash the Texans with 20%. Assuming this pays out around 1/3 of the time, you’re in the black.

What does that mean? It means you can believe there’s a 50% chance that the NFC will win the Super Bowl, and a 16% chance the Chiefs or another AFC team win, and still be making money on this bet.

15-16% is consistent with the Chiefs being a top 6 or 7 team, but not a top 3 or 4 team. And there are too many good numbers suggesting that Kansas City is not a top 3 team right now.