The Young QBs
Who are we giving up on and who are we watching?
Judging talent in the NFL is hard. Football is a team sport, so the contributions of any one player get muddled by the overall performance of the team. But still, I believe that many are too generous in judging players. This is especially true when players have remarkable qualities (e.g., speed), but do not make remarkable contributions to their team’s success.
The signs of success in pro football can be seen early. And the difference between the greats and everyone else is apparent quick. Patrick Mahomes is not on these young QBs list—he missed the age cutoff by one year—but if he was I’d get to say that he has accumulated 5 Pro Bowl nominations, 2 MVPs, and 2 Super Bowl titles in just 5 seasons of play.
Which is simply to point out that most of the young players are too old to become Mahomes good.
But there will be more of that later.
Here are the 12 young quarterbacks worth talking about. I break them into three groups:
Last chance quarterbacks (5 players)
Step up year guys (4 players)
It’s just too soon to tell (3 players)
Last chance quarterbacks.
The first group of young quarterbacks consists of guys who are in their last real year to impress. They’re aging out of being considered young—25 or 26 years old—and haven’t demonstrated any sort of consistent play yet.
The list is mostly players you won’t care about—Daniel Jones (NYG), Davis Mills (HOU), Mac Jones (NWE), Kenny Pickett (PIT)—and Lamar Jackson.
The Joneses, Mills, and Pickett go without saying. You know what you’re getting with these guys. A player good enough to win some games, but realistically not enough to have a good shot at the title.
These teams can convince themselves they’re happy, because there might not be anything else on the market. But ultimately, they’re looking for someone who has Tier 1 or 2 potential.
And then there’s Lamar Jackson.
Jackson is 1 and 3 in playoff games with a 55% combined completion percentage, a 68 passer rating, and nearly a 1-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. And in both of the last two seasons he’s been unable to play the full year.
Because Jackson won the MVP, it’s hard for the popular press to admit he has become a bad player. But by 2023, teams know how to game plan against him and he doesn’t have the tools to take advantage of the overcompensation.
Lamar is 24th in the league in completion percentage and 22nd in yards per attempt. No amount of running can make up for being a bottom 3rd passer. Can he pass his way out of Tier 4 this year? Or just foreshadowing a decade of Raven frustration?
The step up year.
This group of players has show serious flashes of talent, and having them under center is going to put you in the top half of the league when it comes to Super Bowl contention. The question for these players is: do they have more? Can they make the jump to Tier 2 or Tier 1, and give their teams a strong shot at winning it all?
The players in this group are Kyler Murray, Justin Herbet, Jalen Hurts, and Tua Tagovailoa.
I expect all of these players to start in the NFL for the next eight seasons, at least.
Murray has personality and locker room issues, but is a dynamic talent. Optimistic comp: Russell Wilson.
Herbert has show flashes of greatness throughout his three years in the league. Optimistic comp: Matthew Stafford.
Tua led the NFL in yards per attempt and passer rating last year, in a big step up year. Optimistic Comp: Drew Brees.
And Hurts played Mahomes tough in the Super Bowl, with a lot more consistency last year than in years priors. Optimistic Comp: Cam Newton.
For all four of them, evidence and consistency is the name of the game. They need to prove their best season wasn’t a fluke or a flash in the pan.
Too soon to tell.
And with the last group of players, it’s just too soon to tell. They’re young, with lots of room to grow. We’ve seen some good, some bad. But mostly—we need to see more.
Trevor Lawrence has completed two full seasons as quarterback and made huge strides from year one to year two. That’s what you want to see. If he can continue to grow, he’s still potentially on pace to be one of the greats. That’s a big if—so we’ll be watching for signs of regression or his growth slowing down.
Lawrence’s second season is reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers’ first season as a starter. And there are plenty of folks who believe he can live up to that comp.
The Bears’ Justin Fields made progress last year, but he is still very much a running quarterback. He runs more than anyone in the league except Lamar and Hurts, and his 315 pass attempts was the lowest of any quarterback starting 15+ games.
We’re looking for Fields needs to pass better and more often this year. He made strides last year. Can he keep going in the right direction?
Last, but not least, is Brock Purdy. With only 5 regular season starts and 3 playoff starts, we haven’t seen nearly enough to make a call. But what we have seen has been awfully good.
Purdy’s game low completion percentage last year was 60%, when he threw for 3 touchdowns against the Seahawks in a playoff game. And he was undefeated in 8 appearances until tearing ligaments in his elbow in the Super Bowl.
Because Purdy was an unheralded 7th rounder from Iowa State who backed up the maligned Jimmy G, he hasn’t gotten an earnest review by the popular football media. But the early data is impressive. He needs to keep doing more of the same.
Standard caveats about small sample size apply. Anyone can have a good 9 game stretch. Or even a good 20 game stretch.
Circle the 49ers October 8th showdown with the Dallas Cowboys and their stout defense. We’ll see what Purdy is all about there.