What do Eagles fans want from Jalen Hurts?

The Super Bowl winner has never been the most aggressive or talented quarterback, but he's plenty good enough. It's the rest of the roster that needs to be examined.

After some lackluster performances by the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, Jalen Hurts is getting a lot of criticism. And he has never been a particularly aggressive downfield passer. However, his P(100) is quite good – and that’s the metric that we look to the most to evaluate quarterback play.

Simply put, quarterbacks who have high P(100) are doing enough. There might be problems, but it is probably in other areas of the team.

Jalen Hurts has a P(100) of 0.48 – good for a top 10 rating. That’s good enough that the Eagles should be focusing on other areas of their team. Like their suddenly ancient running back, Saquon Barkley, who is averaging only 60% of his yards per carry from last year.

But for the sake of rigor, and to clear Jalen Hurts’ name, let’s take a look at how he compares to his peers across the metrics we care about when it comes to quarterbacks – P(100), Yards per Attempt, and Success Rate – and how he stacks up against quarterbacks with similar weapons.

P(100): Doing Less with Less

Jalen Hurts’ P(100) of 0.48 is good. It means that the Eagles have a 48% chance of Hurts playing well enough through the playoffs that they could reasonable expect to win the Super Bowl if all things go their way. This is good enough for top-10 in the league, but it puts him with other hit and miss QBs: Sam Darnold, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, and Matthew Stafford.

Each of these QBs has their moments of greatness. And so does hurts. Each of these QBs also has their shortcomings. And so does hurts.

Hurts has a worse success rate and lower yards per attempt than those quarterbacks with a similar P(100) – but he is also working with worse weapons. In particular, Darnold, Stafford, and Prescott all have much better weapons.

That his success rate this season is 8 points below his peers is concerning on a drive-by-drive basis, but over the course of a game, the P(100) should dominate that statistic. It really just means the Eagles need to be ahead of the sticks and playing with momentum if they want to win.

Y/A: These are not the comps you’re looking for

Yards per attempt is a metric that we use to qualify quarterback play because throwing the ball down the field does a lot of good things. From a game theory perspective, it causes the defense to need to play more defensively, and defend more territory, opening the run game.

This has never been Jalen Hurts’ strength. Hurts yards per attempt puts him with journeyman quarterbacks like Jacoby Brissett and Mac Jones, as well as Patrick Mahomes, who is having an especially poor year.

Interestingly, Hurts is palying better than all these quarterbacks by a significant margin – but he still lags behind on success rate. He may even be worse at pushing the ball down the field than his yards/attempt number suggests.

And surprisingly, this is not because he has worse weapons. While his peers by P(100) averaged much better weapons, he has about hte same quality weapons as his peers by yards per attempt.

Success Rate: Outperforming his rating

Success rate is an indicator for how well a quarterback can meet the moment. How often do they take a bad situation and make it better. How well can they keep drives alive.

And when it comes to Hurts’, as we’ve seen, he’s not that good at it. His peers in this cateogry, likewise, are not going to be considered top of the league by anyone. Baker Mayfield is probably the best of a cohort that includes Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, and Aaron Rodgers.

But when we compare Hurts to this cohort, he does much, much better. He is 20 percentage points more likely to average a QB rating of 100 over four games, he averages more than a half a yard more per attempt.

Admittedly, his weapons are better in some cases – but not all, and not by much. Except for Rogers, it is not obvious that the Eagles skill position players are better than the skill position players for the Bears, Buccaneers, or Broncos.

Weapons score: Exactly what we expected?

And lastly, we can take a look at Hurts by his–the Eagles’–weapon score. A 68 weapon score is good for top third of the league. Nothing spectacular, but nothing terrible.

And Hurts compares favorably to two of the other three quarterbacks in this grouping. Like we’ve seen, his yards per attempt and success rate are lacking – but his P(100) is strong. His play is much more consistent that his peers.

What are we to take from all of this?

Well, previously, the Eagles had a much stronger running game. And that had a lot to do with their success.

The Eagle’s receiving corps likely feels they had a big role to play in the success. After all, they were incredible in 2022 and 2023. But in 2024 and now in the 2025 campaign, they’re just a bit better than average. This is what aging looks like. Ask the Chiefs.

AJ Brown is averaging the fewest yards per target of his career. And unlike years past, where Brown was the clear number one, this year, DeVonta Smith is as good if not better.

The Eagles roster is not the same as it was. It’s worse. Their quarterback is playing consistently. But consistent might not be enough this year.

But also, it might be just fine. Getting into the playoffs with a steady hand under center gives you more than a puncher’s chance in the NFL.