What should we expect from Wemby?
How soon can we judge Le Phenom Francais, and will the 2030s be the Wembanyama decade?
This fall, in a city near you, Victor Wembanyama is starring in what will be—for at least the next few years—the most interesting story in basketball. That is: how great can Wemby be?
The French phenom is 7’5” and a highly capable scorer. In the French league last year, he averaged 21.6 points per game. The year prior, he impressed with two 37+ point games against the G League Ignite.
And his size adds a unique panahce to Wembanyama’s defense. Wemby averaged 3 blocks per game in the French league, and recored 3 and 5 blocks in his two 27-minute summer league appearances.
Signs point to Wembanyama being good. But how good?
To me, there are two ways of thinking about baselines for Wembanyama's performance this year. We can compare Wembanyama to top Euro-crossover players and we can compare Wembanyama to players who are expected to have somewhat of a similar style.
In this post, we’ll do both of those things.
How does Wemby in the French League compare to other Euro transfers
Starting with the European comps, we can see right away that Wemby is a step above. Comparing Wembanyama’s previous season in the French league to Jokic and the Gasol brothers final seasons before they joined the NBA, Wembanyama bested the European crossovers noticeably in points-per-game, rebounds, and free throw percentage.
Notably, Wembanyama had a usage rate of 31.5% in France last season—leading the team in minutes played, field goal attempts, points, rebounds and blocks. This projects well for his ability to handle the load of NBA stardom. A usage rate of 31.5% is similar to offensive focal points like Kevin Durant and Steph Curry.
And if Wembanyama is any good, he will assume the workhorse role for the Spurs. None of the Spurs three highest usage rate players from last season had a positive box plus-minus or a VORP over 1.
What to expect from Wemby’s first season?
Next, we can look at these Euro-crossover stars— and some other potential Wembanyama comps—fared in their first season in the NBA. For additional comps, I selected Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, and Kevin Durant based on the following criteria:
body type
age of greatness
hype
Garnett was drafted 5th overall directly out of high school—the first player to do so in more than 20 years—and was both a dominant scorer and defensive stalwart.
Durant was selected 2nd overall after being the consensus best player in the NCAA the previous season—in large part because of concerns around his body type.
Tim Duncan finished college before entering the pros, but was a similar two-way big—and will be Wembanyama’s biggest comparison, playing for the Hall of Famer’s former team and coach.
Averaging the rookie seasons of those six players together—Garnett, Duncan, Durant, Jokic, and the Gasol brothers—produces an impressive rookie stat line. 15 points and 8 rebounds per game on 50% shooting with 2 blocks is a great line for a 19 year old.
That line wouldn’t put him in Duncan territory—but it would be better than the first season of both KG and Jokic—two league MVPs. And Wembanyama is, developmentally, closer to KG and Jokic when they entered the league than Duncan—who was already 21 years old.
Field goal attempts are the stat to watch. Wembanyama will accumulate rebounds and blocks because of his size, but most rookies do not get heavy shooting loads. Because the Spurs are particularly bad, and Wembanyama comes particularly hyped, an offensive game plan that revolves around Wemby could produce a historic rookie season.
Wemby bets
Fan Duel has two Wembanyama props available right now: Wembanyama to average 15 points and 10 rebounds (+150) and Wembanyama to average 20 points and 10 rebounds (+250).
Because of the lack of other high-usage players on the Spurs, the point total is less concerning here. The harder number to come by is the rebound total. Only about 10 players a year surpass that number.
And only Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, and Julius Randal averaged 20 and 10.
If you’re compelled to bet either of the two lines, the 20 and 10 bet at +250 appears to be better value. Both Nikola Jokic and Tim Duncan averaged 20 and 10 in their rookie seasons.
The Wemby waiting game
To save the best for last: the biggest question is how long will we have to wait to see a dominant Wembanyama—if that’s what we’re going to see at all?
When evaluating NBA players, the first question to ask is—is this player good enough to be the top star on a championship roster. In most cases, the answer is no. For Wembanyama, at some point, we’re assuming the answer will be yes. But when?
I’ve collected four measures that can serve a good barometer of this for the assortment of Wembanyama-like players. I’ve chosen:
The age at which the player won their first title
The age at which the player won their first MVP
The age at which the player first recorded a season BPM over 8
The age at which the player first recorded a Manalytics Score over 10
I’ve also added in Jordan and LeBron. Because there is some talk Wemby could become the best ever, I wanted to add in Jordan and LeBron to see how quickly we will know if that’s a conversation we can put to rest.
On average, players in our Wemby comp pool hit championship-readiness between 21 and 26. And most won a title shortly after—between 27 and 32. LeBron and Jordan—to nobody’s particular surprise—led the pack here. LeBron put up his first MVP-quality season, judged by BPM, at just 20-years old. And by the next year, he was widely recognized as a top 5 player in the league.
Because Jordan went to college, his numbers are delayed by two years—but his impressive performances began with his first season in the league, whereas LeBron needed a year to acclimate.
Altogether, this paints a picture of three phases for Wembanyama to pass through:
Acclimation phase (Ages 20-21, 2023 to 2025 )
Ascendency phase (Ages 21-26, 2025 to 2030)
Achievement phase (Ages 26+, 2030 and beyond)
In this first phase, the Acclimation Phase, Wembanyama will be adjusting to the league and growing into his body. If he does break out in either of these next two years, we’ll know we have a historically great star on our hands—on track to meet Jordan and LeBron. And if he spends these years adapting to the league, putting up modest numbers, he still has the potential to be an all time great.
Beginning in 2025, Wembanyama will enter the Ascendency Phase. During this phase, we should start to see hime dominate the league. If he is going to be great, we will expect Wembanyama to win his first MVP during this phase. This is also the earliest we should expect Wemby to win a title.
Then, beginning in 2030, we should see Wembanyama’s climactic Achievement Phase. This will mark the beginning of Wemby at the peak of his powers: accumulating awards—and hopefully titles as well. If he is truly great, this phase could last as long as a decade. Delineating 2030 to 2040 as the Wembanyama decade of the NBA; just as 2010 to 2020 was the LeBron decade and 1990 to 2000 was the Jordan decade.
In sum…
Wembanyama compares favorably to Euro-crossover stars like Jokic and the Gasol brothers. There’s reason to believe he could put up 20 points per game in his first season in the NBA—especially given the paucity of the Spurs roster and his high usage rate for a big man.
We’ll know within two years if we have a Jordan- or LeBron-like talent on our hands.
If he takes a little while longer to mature, he could still be a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate like Garnett, Duncan, or KD—but will likely not be the league defining force he’s been advertised as.
By 2030, we should see a fully dominant Wembanyama accumulating trophies and triumphs. Until then, our assessments should be focused on whether or not he is on track to dominate during this phase or not.