When did Mahomes Magic disappear
Patrick Mahomes had a legendary entrance to the league and has been living on that mystique. Now the chickens are coming home to roost.
Here at Wolohan Analytics, we use a choice metric to evaluate quarterback play. The metric is called P(100), and it’s simple. It’s the probability that a quarterback will post a passer rating of 100 or more in 4 straight games: approximately what a team needs to be a serious contender for the Super Bowl.
As we’re coming up on the halfway point of the season, it seemed like a good time to check in. Baker Mayfield has quietly been ascending the rankings. Lamar Jackson has maintained a steady grip on the top spot. Jalen Hurts continues to play just well enough to give the Eagles a great chance. And Drake Maye has leaped from the depths of the rookie play into realm of contenders.
But the most interesting thing, bar none, is Patrick Mahomes’ continued decline.
When Mahomes broke into the league, he posted numbers we had never seen before. And it reflected on the field. Five Super Bowl appearances and three Super Bowl victories in five years. A truly incredible run.
But what started to become apparent in 2023-24 has become obvious now two seasons later: Patrick Mahomes is in a slump.
In a lot of ways, it’s hard to even talk about Mahomes’ slump, because he’s been so incredible. Now in his eighth season, Mahomes’ posted his career-worst P(100) in week 3 after a lackluster performance against the Giants: 26%. Since then, he’s climbed up a handful of points to 33%.
Peyton Manning, for comparison, had a similar nadir. But the cause of his ratings decline was lack of play due to neck surgery.
What is notable about both Brady and Manning though, is that they both started poor, and ascended to their heights. Mahomes started high and is coming crashing down to earth. Everything he has done the last eight seasons has made his rating worse.
We can expect him to rebound at some point – likely when the roster turns over in a few years after the departure of an aging Travis Kelce – but until then, it’s not clear that Mahomes’ drop is going to stop anytime soon.
Tom Brady played as poorly as Mahomes is now for a season and a half, starting in the 2014-15 season. So Mahomes’ poor performances could extend for a while – or get worse.
P(100) by career game played, for Mahomes vs. Brady and Manning
Black horizontal line is 50% – the P(100) benchmark for elite QB play.
One of the things about Mahomes’ starting at his peak, is that we don’t really have a sense for his floor. In a lot of ways, he’s in free fall. How low he can go is anyone’s guess.
This becomes all the more obvious as we compare Mahomes against his contemporaries.
Jackson, Allen, and Hurts are all getting better.
In an odd way, Mahomes is most similar to Brock Purdy: a young quarterback who had a strong start to his career, and is now in what can only be described as a decline–except their extended declines still put them in the top handful of quarterbacks in the league.
That, and Mahomes’ decline has now extended for eight seasons.
P(100) by career game played, for Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, Hurts, and Purdy
Black horizontal line is 50% – the P(100) benchmark for elite QB play.
Jackson, Allen, and Hurts all resemble the shape of a career we would expect for a good quarterback. It starts low, ascends, dips, ascends again. Neither Allen or Hurts have the heights that we have seen from Brady and Manning – but to be fair, neither of them is really in that conversation.
Hurts is a good enough piece on a strong team. Allen is occasionally great but inconsistent – which becomes a big penalty at quarterback.
Jackson, actually compares favorably to both Brady and Manning for the first 110 games of his career. This stretch of games from 80 to 130 or so is when both Brady and Manning found their first peak. And Jackson is hitting his stride around the same time.
He currently posts a league-leading P(100) of 81%. A score 15 percentage points higher than the second place quarterback: Jared Goff (66%). That 81% P(100) matches Manning’s peak – late in his career in Denver – and exceeds any peak Brady had.
P(100) by career game played, for Jackson, Manning, and Brady through their first 130 games.
Black horizontal line is 50% – the P(100) benchmark for elite QB play.
The question with Jackson, of course, is whether there is a Jekyll and Hyde property to his play. Is Jackson a different player in the regular season and the playoffs?
His early playoff experience would have us to believe yes – but more recently, his results are improved. Since 2024, in four playoff games, Jackson has surpassed the necessary 100 passer rating mark in 3-of-4 games.
And this year, when we look at supplemental stats like success rate and yards per attempt – which proxy how capable a quarterback is of pushing the ball down the field and managing in demanding situations – Jackson compares favorably to the top of the field. He is second in the league in yards per attempt and third in success rate.
The final way we might look at this is to say, no. Mahomes really was that great – he’s due for a rebound. So let’s match up his dive with other greats who had a dive and see what we can expect the bottom to catch.
If we look at Brady and Manning’s descents, we can see that both Brady and Manning had rebounded by now. In fact, both had rebounded four seasons ago.
To put that another way, Mahomes has been getting worse for 8 years, and neither Brady nor Manning had a slump that lasted longer than three.
It’s worth remembering that these dips from Brady and Manning are also between seasons 8 and 12. So you’re seeing accumulated injuries, coach turnover, and the general aging out of their primes. Both Brady and Manning had to learn new ways to play as they aged. Mahomes, turning 30 this year, is at the tail end of his prime and presumably has not had that dip yet.
In fact, if age alone was the predictor, we’d expect Mahomes to dip even farther these next two years as he adjusts to a new – less heroic – body.
Career-worst P(100) decline: Mahomes, Brady, and Manning
Black horizontal line is 50% – the P(100) benchmark for elite QB play.
How do you bet this?
Warning on gambling: Most bettors do really poorly and there is a reason that sports books make lots of money. Betting advice is for entertainment purposes only. For integrity purposes, we place a small wager on every bet we recommend.
This one is easy: pick some of your favorite AFC teams. Right now, the Chiefs have the second best odds to win the conference, but Mahomes is having an off year and they are third in the division standings. Take everyone you like in the AFC except the Chiefs and – because their odds are so over-inflated – you should still be getting good odds.
We took the Bills, Colts, Broncos, Patriots, and Ravens to win the conference at roughly these percentages: 31%, 22%, 22%, 15%, 10%. That distribution is going to favor the Broncos, Patriots, and Ravens. If you like the Bills or the Colts, there’s plenty of room to shift your mix that way.
We’re fading Aaron Rogers and Justin Herbert.
Great article. While there's certainly a scenario in which Mahomes makes the GOAT debate with Brady an actual debate, it's a lot less likely than most people think. It's wild how long Brady was elite for. In my analytics model, Mahomes would have to basically duplicate the first half of his career in the second (including championships) to get there. His 2019-23 does register for me as the greatest NFL peak of all time, though.