Can Flacco do it again? 23-24 NFL playoff preview
The 49ers are the favorite, Cleveland is the dark horse, and the beleaguered Cowboys and Bills have real hope to take us back to the 90s.
The end of the regular NFL season is here. And we have to say—we haven’t learned much more than we did at the midpoint of the regular season. There is some added public caution around the Dolphins and maybe too much caution around the Eagles, but ultimately, the top teams now were the top teams then.
What has changed: the rise of the Ravens into the national eye. We had them fourth best in the league at Thanksgiving. Now, many have them as the favorites—at least in the AFC if not the entire NFL. We’re still cautious. The Ravens are who they’ve been in the past: a great team, with a suspect quarterback.
They’ve taken this path to two Super Bowl victories in the last two decades. And, full disclosure, I lived in Baltimore and would call myself a Ravens fan before any other team in the league—but Lamar Jackson is not a player I want to put my money, or my playoff hopes behind.
For now, let’s do a brief season recap—and then take a look at the playoffs.
NFL Recap: Even Money
At the outset of the season, we were short the AFC West (correct), the Dolphins (wrong in practice—but still maybe right?) and the AFC East (correct), and the Bengals (correct). We didn’t have much to say about the NFC—the popular wisdom seemed to be right. And it largely was.
To that end, we offered up five pre-season bets that we liked. Two were winners (+3.35 units), and three were losers (-3 units). In total, we ended up up .35 units on our season-long futures.
We had an over on the Raiders as a short against the AFC West. We thought the Broncos would be down and the Chargers would be down, versus expectations, and that that would lead to relatively more wins for the Raiders. The Raiders swept the Broncos, and traded games with the Chargers—leaving them 3-and-1 against these division rivals. They did enough to get the over 7.5 wins we recommended at +210, but not quite enough to get the over 8.5 at +360. Last weeks game against the Colts had a lot on the line and was a classic hedge spot.
Hand-in-hand with that bet was a bet on the Broncos under their team total of 8.5 (-114). It turns out that Vegas got this line right, as the Broncos finished at 8 wins exactly. Taking the over here was an easy call because of how bad Russell Wilson had looked. The fact that the Broncos turned it around is a testament to Sean Payton’s organization and play-calling.
I’d expect this team to be at 9 or 10 wins next year, with a new quarterback and a more complete offensive system.
We lost an under bet on the Dolphins at 9.5 total wins (-110). In part, this is because the AFC East was even more down than we thought it would be. New England was hapless again, the New York Jets’ season was over 5 plays into the opening game, and Buffalo could never quite pull it all together. The Dolphins were the beneficiary of all that.
My early guess is that we’ll probably look to short the Dolphins again next year.
Lastly, we hit on the Bengals under 10.5 (+125). The Bengals benefit from a lot of Joe Burrow hype—but Burrow has problems in his game and, this season, had problems staying on the field. He was injured in pre-season, getting the Bengals off to a cold start, and ultimately knocked out of the season.
Burrow’s injury profile is a serious concern to those who had placed him in the same class as Patrick Mahomes. He will have only started two full seasons by his 28th birthday. And at that age, he’s officially out of “young quarterback land”.
Ultimately, we can feel good about our positions ahead of the season. Our most ambitious positions (long Raiders, short Bengals) both hit—although the Raiders were a single win from making us +3.95 units (80% return) instead of +0.35 units (7% return).
Now with the regular season behind us, it’s time to look to the playoffs. 14 teams. All of them are at least okay. Only one can emerge victorious. And, because this is football, we’re in “any given Sunday” land.
AFC Preview
In the AFC, Baltimore is the boss. The Ravens defense is incredible—second only to the historically good Browns—and they have the best record and the lock on the one seed. Unfortunately, that might hurt them more than it could help this year.
The two teams the Ravens really want to avoid are the Buffalo Bills and the Cleveland Browns. But 2 seed Buffalo and 5 seed Cleveland are the chalk picks to face the Ravens in the divisional round (Cleveland) and the conference finals (Buffalo).
Cleveland would be the hardest out for the Ravens. The two teams play a very similar style—but you have to like the explosiveness of the Browns offense versus the plodding nature of Baltimore. A lesser Cleveland team edged the Ravens earlier this season. Now with former Raven Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco at the helm, the Browns are looking a lot more dangerous than they did in early November.
I’ve been reluctant all season to throw my money behind Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is too inconsistent for me to feel comfortable with him behind center. Against good teams, he’s as likely to be a liability as a boon. And if he has to face the Cleveland defense, he could be in trouble. Lamar Jackson is a bottom 5 playoff quarterback by P(100).
As you can probably sense, my favorite teams, versus the odds, in the AFC are the Buffalo Bills and the Cleveland Browns. Buffalo has the best shot of getting out of the AFC because they will likely get to avoid Baltimore—or play them in the conference final. Their first round match up against Pittsburgh is the easiest of the week, and they opened as much than a touchdown favorite.
The Steelers and Texans—the Bills and Browns first round opponents—are bad teams that have found their way into the playoff. The Steelers are playing a perennial backup as a quarterback and the Texans are starting a rookie. They have the worst odds in the conference to make the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs are a team that nobody expects to make a run, but everyone is afraid to count out. And I’m not counting them out either—but I won’t count them in. I like Kansas City less than Baltimore, Buffalo, and Cleveland, but more than the rest of the AFC field. The Chiefs have a stout D and are great situationally. Mahomes is the entirety of the offense this year—a far cry from the explosive offenses of years past—but scoring is down across the league, and this may be the year that defense proves enough to bring home the Lombardi.
NFC Preview
In the NFC, we find ourselves in a similar situation. A dominant leader—San Francisco—and a handful of teams with a hope. The difference is that the NFC has fewer, but slightly better challengers.
Dallas, Detroit, and Philadelphia are all good teams.
Dallas may be the most complete team outside of San Francisco and Baltimore. Their quarterback play has been great all year—and Prescott has been consistent historically. Dallas’ defense is solid. If there’s an upset in the NFC, Dallas has to be the favorite to make it happen.
Detroit just lost* to Dallas in a close matchup, decided by poor refereeing more than play. Their quarterback play is also quite good. The Lions’ Goff is only slightly worse performing that Prescott, but arguably has a higher upside. The concern is that they’ve played a cupcake schedule and their best win of the season was a Week 1 victory over Kansas City.
Detroit upsetting San Francisco would be a surprise.
Philly was the favorite most of the year, but have since fallen from their perch as the darling of media and popular wisdom. That said, the team has many of the parts of the last year’s Super Bowl runner up. I don’t think they can win the Super Bowl. Their defense is not stout and their quarterback is too inconsistent. But can they play the spoiler role?
The Eagles had a three-game midseason stretch where they beat the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills. It is not unimaginable that for one day, they can beat the ordained 49ers.
That all said, San Francisco has been our favorite all season and remains so now. They have wins over Dallas and Philadelphia already. They are getting the most consistent quarterback play of anyone in the league. And their offense and defense are complete units.
San Francisco’s weakness is that they need to win by following a specific path. In the five games this season San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy has had to throw more than 30 times, San Francisco has a losing record: 2-3. Brock Purdy only eclipsed a passer rating of 100 once in those five games.
Right now, San Francisco is a run first team.
But they are a much more versatile run-first team than their AFC nemesis Baltimore.
Playoff Positions
There are three teams that it seems like Vegas is under-valuing heading into the playoffs: Cleveland (+3000), Dallas (+750), and Buffalo (+650).
The Bills may be a top four team, and can avoid Baltimore until the conference championship. A division round upsets could quickly turn them into Super Bowl favorites. They also play a deficient Steelers team in the opening round. The Bills also benefit from good situational play. Quarterback play is a concern—but not at +650 to win the Super Bowl.
Dallas has great numbers, but no great wins. Their biggest win is over a Philadelphia team no one respects, and signature losses to those same Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, and the 49ers. But that is why they are undervalued. At +750 to win the Super Bowl, we’re probably getting a bit of value here on Dallas.
Cleveland has the longest odds here, but arguably the most compelling story. The “how” Cleveland wins is easy: the defense is suffocating, and Joe Flacco airs it out enough that the Browns can claim the day. We’ve got Flacco’s P(100) at about 20%—and Cleveland is currently at about 3% to win the Super Bowl. That’s a meaningful difference.
If Flacco can sniff a 100 quarterback rating, the Browns defense is good enough to carry this team to victory.