CFP: Losing by Winning
Another unintended consequence of the playoff: Georgia and Oregon would have been better off losing their conference championship matchups.
The College Football Playoff bracket is set. Undefeated Oregon takes the top spot in the bracket —but do they have the easiest path? It’s unlikely.
Using the same approach we used in our recent post on information gain in college football, we find that the middle-seeded teams—Texas and Penn State—actually have the easiest path to the semifinal. Texas and Penn State can reach the semifinal without playing a single team “very strong” team, under our previous rating system. We give Texas and Penn State greater than 80% chances of winning against all four of: Arizona State, Boise State, Clemson, and SMU.
Oregon must play either Ohio State or Tennessee—both who are rated as very strong opponents. And Georgia may find themselves facing Notre Dame, who is also rated as a very strong opponent.
The presence of these strong opponents in their part of the bracket means that Oregon and Georgia’s likelihood of reaching the semifinal is nearly 20 percentage points worse than teams they beat in their conference finals!
Winning their conference championship games was actually detrimental to their odds of winning the national title.
Right now, Texas has the best odds of any team to win the national title at +360. Georgia shares this rating. And Oregon is only a bit behind at +380. But their odds are all so steep, there’s no value here.
Tennessee (+2600) and Penn State (+600) are undervalued significantly. And if you believe Notre Dame can be competitive with elite teams, they are undervalued as well at +1200.