Early NFL Assessment
The 49ers, Bills, and Chiefs are the top of the league still, New York football is still a mess, and most young quarterbacks continue to disappoint... what else have we learned?
We’re a month into the NFL season, which is about as early as we can confidently say anything about the coming season, with clarity starting to take hold around Thanksgiving. What have we learned so far?
The Good Teams
The teams we expected to be good are, by and large, good. San Francisco, Kansas City, Buffalo, Dallas, Miami were good last year. Miami’s offense looks as potent as ever, behind a healthy Tua, and Brock Purdy continues to be undefeated at quarterback.
The Chiefs are not at the peak of their powers—but they are still emerging from the first month of the season at 3-1, and appear to be a lock to win the AFC West. The Chargers, Broncos, and Raiders will all finish the season as hapless also-rans.
The table below shows the Top 8 teams, based off our analytics: P(100) QB rating, Elo rating (expressed as point spread) and weighted EPA, converted into an expected points per game.
Surprisingly, the Bills may be under-valued right now. Vegas has the Bills +400 to win the AFC, second behind the Chiefs (+280). And while the Bills have much more inconsistent quarterback play—they look to be a more complete team this year than the Chiefs.
The Ravens (+550 to win the AFC) are probably over-valued. Lamar is playing better, but is not a consistent passer. Ultimately, the Ravens are not complete enough to weather a long playoff run.
There looks to be a lot of value on the Seahawks, who are performing about as well as the Eagles by the advanced metrics—but are quarterbacked by the long-time backup Geno Smith. Smith has few exceptional traits, but a high P(100) rating, which will keep them competitive in the playoffs—should they get there.
The Bad Teams
The five worst teams in the league, by our metrics, are the Atlanta Falcons, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the New York Giants, the Chicago Bears, and the New York Jets. In no small part, this is the result of bad quarterback play. The Giants’ Daniel Jones is the best of the quarterbacks by P(100) rating, and he clocks in at 18%, putting him in the bottom-third of the league.
The Steelers and Jets make that look outstanding, by comparison. With their quarterbacks have a P(100) rating of 0. And while the Jets are in their predicament because of injury, the Steelers are playing quarterback Kenny Picket by choice.
Vegas and the media alike are stubbornly clinging to a bad Pittsburgh team. They’re 2-2 against the spread so far — but we like looking for opportunities to short the Steelers over the next few weeks.
All of these teams are in the basement until they can find a better quarterback.
Quarterback Performance
Quarterback play has been surprising throughout the first month of the season. The unlikely standout is San Fransisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy—who we had as a Tier 1 player, but noted that he only had 7 real games under his belt.
Four games later, the Purdy resume is becoming harder to refute. It remains to be seen how long he can play at this level—but with each passing week, it becomes harder and harder to call him a liability for the 49ers. After four weeks, Purdy tops our P(100) listing, with a P(100) or 76%—or a 76% of having a QB rating of 100 or more over a four game stretch.
C.J. Stroud has likewise been impressive—clocking in with a P(100) of 67% for his first four games as a starter. Behind Stroud’s performance, the Texans have division championship hopes alive and well.
Tua and Lamar—both more seasoned than Purdy or Stroud—have impressed with their recent performances. There are serious doubts about the health of each, but Tua especially has had success. Lamar, for his part, is throwing the ball better—likely an attempt to transition out of the run-first archetype.
Joe Burrow is the biggest disappointment of the opening month. A calf injury has hindered Burrow more than has been discussed. Entering the season as a Tier 2 P(100) QB, Burrow has dropped to Tier 4 with his recent stretch of poor play. So far this season, Burrow hasn’t had a single game with a yards/attempt over six. On average, Burrow is targeting receivers within 6.1 yards of the line of scrimmage—greater only than Cowboy’s game manager Dak Prescott. This has all the tell-tale signs of injury —expect Burrow to rebound to Tiers 2 when his calf heals.
Lastly, we have a crop of quarterbacks hovering at or around 0% P(100) rating. We’ve already talked about Pickett and Wilson, and Bryce Young can be given a pass for his first few games in the league, but Desmond Ridder now has eight starts and Sam Howell has five. We’re not at the point to say they can’t be long-term players in this league—but those are bad starts that do not resemble that of players who go on to become stars. At least not in 2023.
With young players, we want to see flashes of good play that become more consistent over time. Right now, Ridder and Howell aren’t giving their teams anything to build upon.
Early Storyline’s Answered
And while it is still early, almost all of our questions heading into the season have been answered in a meaningful way.
We asked if Rodgers had enough left to propel the Jets to wins. The answer: not this season. Rodgers is out with an injury and the 1-3 Jets are the bottom of the division.
We asked if the Broncos situation is salvageable, with Russ and Sean Payton. The answer: The Broncos have given up, and should be 0-4 if not for terrible play calling by the Bears—the worst team in the league by EPA and Elo—at the end of the game.
We asked if the Ravens can get over the hump with Lamar Jackson. And while we won’t know for sure until the playoffs, Jackson looks to be playing more sustainably and is rising in our P(100) QB ratings. Jackson is at 800 yards passing through games — which is about 80 less than we wanted him to have. But Jackson’s completion percentage and yards per attempt are both on-trend for career highs.
We asked if the 49ers could mitigate mediocre quarterback play, expecting Brock Purdy to regress to league average level. We were wrong and it turns out the 49ers don’t have to. They have an excellent quarterback. In-fact, Purdy tops our P(100) ratings with a 76% chance of playing at 100 rating-level or higher over a 4-game stretch.
Lastly, we asked if Hurts, Lawrence would continue to have success. The answer to this has been no. The Jags have been inconsistent, as has been Lawrence—who remains in Tier 4 of our P(100) ratings, with less than a 25% chance of playing 4 good games. Hurts, for his part, is playing below his averages from last year—unsurprising given a shocking near-MVP season—and I’d expect to see more middling play from him this year.
Lawrence is behind on our harbinger metric for him: at 6.5 yards per attempt, a full yard behind where we wanted to see him. Hurts is making good on his, with 12 rushing attempts the most he accumulated in a single week.
Tell me the odds.
The Eagles, Cowboys, and Ravens are good teams with inconsistent quarterback play. I like fading them in futures and in games where we have reason to like the opposing team. Both the Eagles and Cowboys play a competitive Rams team, that has covered or pushed in every game this year (3-0-1 ATS).
To further fade those teams, I like a combination of Chiefs, 49ers, Bills, Dolphins, Lions to win the Super Bowl this year. You can even throw the Seahawks in if you’d like an additional long shot.
You can get all six of those teams—three from the AFC (Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins) and three from the NFC (49ers, Lions, Seahawks) at even money or better, depending on how you structure the payout. You can easily load up your favorites and use the others as hedges, or spread the money evenly for a smaller, but more balanced payout.
A naive approach, wagering $100 on each of the Chiefs, 49ers, and Bills, and $50 on the Dolphins, Lions, and Seahawks—pays out between $250 (Chiefs, 49ers) and $1500+ (Seahawks) after taking into consideration the losses from the other bets.