Enter Ant Man
What does Anthony Edwards mean for our basketball predictions? And how are we doing at predicting the NBA playoffs?
Anthony Edwards has taken the league commentariat by surprise. Several blowout wins over the defending champion Denver Nuggets, and he is being proclaimed the next Michael Jordan.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets are out. What credit should we give or take away from Jokic?
And how are our Manalytics-based NBA finals predictions going?
Ant Man: Already a Superhero?
Minnesota has a really good team. And Anthony Edwards is the beneficiary of Minnesota’s completeness. He is not yet a complete player. His offense is inconsistent. And yet, dropping 40 points on the defending champs—who struggled through the regular season and had a limited roster—is something.
What should we make of this?
Not much, yet.
Edwards still needs to prove himself, and this next round against Doncic and Irving is just the matchup.
Unlike Denver—who struggled with shooting throughout the series—Dallas comes out of a series in which their shooting was the difference maker. And unlike Denver whose number 2 player—Jamal Murray—was inconsistent and easily denied, Kyrie Irving is unlikely to be.
Irving showed as much in Dallas’ Game 1.
We did not advise betting the Wolves, despite their place atop the Western Conference standings on and off throughout the year, because of Anthony Edwards not in spite of him. The 22 year old is too inconsistent.
If the Wolves do win, it will need to be his Edwards’ teammates who step up to win games. At this point in his career, Edwards is worth a game or too—but not a series.
Jokic and not much else.
Denver has never been held back by Jokic, who many believe is the best player in the world. And who, by virtue of his greatness, puts his team in title contention every year. However, basketball is a not baseball. Basketball is a team sport.
Jokic cannot win titles with such mediocre play around him.
The Ringer produces a ranking of the Top 100 NBA players (Jokic is #1.) Here is how the other quarterfinal teams compare to the Nuggets.
Denver has talent. 5 guys who are undeniable contributors around the league. But they lack options compared to Boston or Minnesota. And they lack the versatility of the Doncic/Irving combo in Dallas.
One of the great things about Doncic and Irving is that they can play independent of one another. Irving can score on his own. Doncic can score on his own. Facing two guys who can generate offense is a complex defensive challenge.
Jokic doesn’t get that luxury. And the league is just too good for one excellent player to overcome a team talent mismatch in a seven game series.
In our NBA eras discussion, noting that the LeBron era was over, we said that this era could be the era of Jokic.
However, for Jokic to have his own era, he’s going to need a better supporting cast. Jamal Murray and wishful thinking is not going to be enough for a sustained championship run.
NBA prediction review
How are our NBA predictions doing? We teased this already at the top, but they’re going well. Especially with our two remaining teams up a combined 3-0 after 3 games of the NBA Conference Finals. Another win by the Mavericks could put us in the money.
The Wolves have been the spoiler for us all along. But again, Anthony Edwards inconsistency is a promising sign. And we just haven’t seen anyone match up with Boston to any real effect all post-season.
Doncic is undeniably the best player left in the tournament. And you have to feel good about getting the best player and a one game edge.