What we learned from the Super Bowl
Why the Chiefs victory is a win for P(100) and the Weapon Score, even though we picked the 49ers to win it all.
We had the 49ers in the Super Bowl and got it wrong.
The Chiefs had some luck—recovering 6 of the games’ 7 fumbles—but ultimately, we can be happy about the outcome.
The game was what we expected. If the Chiefs were to win, it was going to be a low scoring affair, led by the Chiefs defense and supported by good-enough quarterback play.
Meanwhile, the 49ers were looking to ignite their offense.
Overall, the Chiefs victory reinforces our existing ideas about P(100) and Weapon Score.
P(100): Chief’s playoff run a reminder of the value of QB play over extended periods of time
P(100) is our preferred quarterback rating metric. The premise of P(100) is that the most important thing about a quarterback is how likely they are to play well enough across a 4 game sample, to beat elite teams and win the Super Bowl. We chose 4 games, because that is the number of games from the wildcard round to the Super Bowl.
Historical data suggests that quarterbacks must play at the 100 quarterback rating level or above over four games to win the Super Bowl. Mahomes’ rating across the playoffs was 105.
Heading into the playoffs, Mahomes had the highest P(100), except for 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy—who had an altogether lackluster postseason.
And while Mahomes only wowed us in spurts—his teams were always in contention. With an elite team around you, and the Chiefs defense was elite, in contention is good enough.
There was a question—albeit one that never came to pass—about what we would say if Purdy joined Brady and Manning as a modern quarterback to win a Super Bowl with pedestrian play. Maybe it would be something about the overall strength of the 49ers, but as it happens, we’re somewhat in the other camp.
Weapon Score: The Niners aren’t as stacked as we thought
All season long, everyone thought the 49ers were stacked on offense. And we all may have been wrong about this.
When we did our Weapon Score analysis for the 23-24 season, we explained San Francisco’s low grade away saying that they had four good weapons, and our metric only accounted for three—so they were undervalued.
But maybe we got it right after all.
the 49ers had no explosive plays. Bradon Aiyuk was able to get open on deep routes, but the Niners’ offensive line—which has been among the worst all year—never allowed them to realize those routes.
Further, all of the Niners receivers are limited.
The numbers demonstrate this too. We said as much in December. The Niners’ have four Bs and no As at receiver.
In basketball, we’d say that this is a great way to find yourself exiting the playoffs—a la both Los Angeles teams this year. Maybe it’s the same for football receiving corps?
The 49er’s and the Chiefs both had average (Chiefs) to good-average (49ers) receivers this year. Neither was in the bottom third of the league. Neither was in the top third of the league.
The Quarterbacks
A lot of ink will be spilled about how Patrick Mahomes is the greatest of all time, and how impressive it was he got the team to the Super Bowl. And a lot of ink will be spilled about how Brock Purdy was too limited—height, arm strength—to take this team to the peak.
Both of those takes will be partially right, but mostly wrong.
Patrick Mahomes was the conductor of the train this year, but he was not the engine. The engine was the defense. Critical defense plays throughout the playoff. Holding the most intimidating offenses in league, back-to-back-to-back, to a handful of touchdowns. The defense deserves the credit this year.
And if you’re going to go to 10 Super Bowls and win seven, you need ugly, defense-heavy wins some years.
Even better if you get them against teams that out played you for most of the game.
Brock Purdy, for his part, did well. He had a higher EPA per drop back that Patrick Mahomes, and showed great situational awareness as the game progressed. His biggest limitation is being so green.
Because Purdy is so young—and his coach is fantastic—we rarely saw Purdy check out of plays that were doomed from the start. The Chiefs were stacking boxes, and charging with run blitzes, daring Purdy to throw the ball. And when he did, the Chiefs got beat again and again.
If Purdy is going to realize his potential, he’s going to need to get better at line of scrimmage adjustments.
Bets
While our Super Bowl bet missed, pre-season and mid-season Super Bowl bets had both the 49ers and the Chiefs in a mix of positive ROI teams, so we continue to be up on the year.
The Super Bowl is certainly an “Any Given Sunday” phenomenon.
The MLB and NBA playoffs could use more of that.
But the football season itself is not. So football bets will be back in August to pick season long trends.
Way too early thoughts: I’d look to short the Ravens, Chiefs, and Lions on win totals…